Sale Prices over 97% of List for the First Time in Three Years
The average achieved sale price, as a percentage of list, is a significant measure of the market. When it drops we conclude the market is deteriorating and when it rises the opposite is true. On September 25 the percentage for all areas & types within the ARMLS database hit 97.01%, exceeding 97% for the first time since September 4, 2006. This is a very positive sign. The number has been rising rapidly since hitting a low of 93.82% on February 5, 2009. The highest reading was 99.54% reached on June 5, 2005.
The highest month for Maricopa county notices of trustee sale (NOTS), often referred to as foreclosure notices, was March 2009 with 10,689.
The highest month for Maricopa trustee sales (completed foreclosures) was July 2009 with 5,261.
These numbers are for ALL property types, including commercial and land.
At the half-way mark in September, we are running at a rate that suggests we will have about 7,800 NOTS and 3,800 trustee sales this month. If this turns out to be correct, this will be a drop of about 12% in notices and 3% in sales compared with August. More importantly it will represent a fall of 27% in notices and 28% in sales from the peak levels.
It is still possible that some lender may post a whole bunch of transactions in one day, so our September outlook must be used with due caution.
It appears likely that, although there is still plenty of foreclosure pain still to live through, we have seen the worst that the housing crisis can throw at us and we are unlikely to top the peak levels set earlier this year.